Everyday Murders in the nation Fall 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The mean count of daily killings each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government figures. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures might not point to improved national stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This information was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we have seen in these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between various agencies.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these actions, Mexico remains grappling with high violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.