Escalating Verbal Conflict Involving Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Raises Fears of Conflict

Mounting apprehensions exist regarding the chance of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

Horn of Africa region
Ethiopia and The Eritrean government were allies in the civil war in Tigray but they have later become estranged.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has triggered a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his government's maritime access was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Information Minister the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that efforts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

There have been few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before turning into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations continued at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader the president. The two endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was concluded – a action that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet relations have later worsened again.

Julie Daugherty
Julie Daugherty

A former professional poker player turned betting analyst, specializing in UK sports markets and responsible gambling practices.