Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
